Wall Street wooed by Harley's motorcycles and promises


Perspective is a wonderful thing. Motorcycle enthusiasts often lament the world would be a different place if everyone could just view life on the open road and from a saddle.

Thankfully for Harley-Davidson, the markets are agreeing with that philosophy. Of course bikers have great memories and an appreciation for history, both of which should leave Harley with an air of caution over making the dance card of so many financial types.

While we shouldn’t expect to see a row of Harleys parked along Wall Street from traders and fund managers, the financial markets did like what they heard and saw Tuesday when Harley-Davidson revealed and reviewed its results from the company’s second quarter. So much so in fact there have been different stories appearing the financial press about the stock markets new found favor for the Milwaukee motorcycle manufacturer.

On the news that sales decreased less than they did over the last few reporting quarters as well as yearly comparisons, stocks of Harley-Davidson Inc. (aptly with a ticker name of HOG) rose from a price of $25.60 on July 20th, the morning of the press conference discussing the quarterly results to $26.83. While the difference in the price of a single stock would just buy a fast food hamburger, in the financial market the increase was notable and considered by some as the largest in over a year.

With dealers still trying everything to get would-be buyers into showrooms, challenging attendance figures at motorcycle events and everyday bikers everywhere continuing to feel the pain of the current recession, what does the market see that the ‘non-experts’ don’t?

On Tuesday many of the moves and plans Harley-Davidson had detailed and outlined over the last year appear to be helping the company. Reducing its own inventory levels, sending less motorcycles to the dealerships and of course the cutting of costs. From administration to production, the Milwaukee motorcycle manufacturer has cut the number of employees and negotiated more favorable terms with its workers when renewing labor contracts.

Although sales did decline over the last quarter for Harley-Davidson, they fell less than they have over recent quarters with International sales appearing to be at that magical turnaround point.

As much as all of this makes sense in the financial world, the ongoing reality of Harley’s stock price, or the value the financial market essentially puts on the company as well as its future performance, isn’t as straight forward. You see, the markets are a fickle mistress.

65A longer look back over HD’s stock price paints an impatient picture of the market place with Wall Street falling in and out of love with the legendary motorcycle manufacturer. As of July 21st 2009 the stock price on the NYSE was $19.20. Back to present day, based on which day of the week the stock price is looked up, it could have gained $6 a share and depending on which expert you speak to, relatively that is a respectable gain.

But like any long road trip, the journey over the last twelve months has been a rough one for Harley’s stock price. Twice in the last twelve months, the stock has been higher than where it is today, $28.72 in October 2009 and $35.49 in April 2010. If those two dates are jogging the memories of motorcycle enthusiasts, they should.

The first was a tough time for Harley-Davidson in the world of public relations; it was making the arrangements to sell off its Buell Motorcycles division and having discussions with community leaders and politicians about studies and possible plans to relocate some of its manufacturing facilities. Tough for the image but great for future financial performance which are coincidentally the words Wall Street likes to be whispered.

The second moment occurred while the rumors of a potential buyer for Harley-Davidson’s MV Agusta division, acquired only a year earlier in 2008, swirled around in the motorcycle and financial press. With reported interest from BMW as well as private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Company, Harley refused to comment on the speculation and watched their stock price rocket to a price not seen in some time.

And just as the stock has seen higher peaks over the last twelve months, it has also fallen to points slightly lower than its new found home in the upper twenties.

But right now the markets are considering Harley's stock a good deal and as the price continues to rise many of the same reasons appear to be present. Over the last few days Harley-Davidson’s CEO Keith Wandell has told numerous reporters the company is in discussions to sell MV Agusta to interested buyers as well as upcoming contract talks with the machinists and steel-workers.

The negotiations are around labor deals expiring in 2012 that cover workers in the Milwaukee area and Tomahawk, Wisconsin plants. As with other manufacturing facilities, union leaders are concerned Harley-Davidson will use the option of relocating operations to cut labor costs.

At stake, 1,100 jobs in Milwaukee and another 320 jobs in Tomahawk. 

“We’re transforming the entire company to be more flexible and closer to customer demand,” Wandell said. “If we can’t get there by mid-September, the timing is such that we’re going to have to a build a new plant somewhere and get the thing up and running so we’re still online to meet our objective.”

And unlike a good road trip, the performance of a company and consequently its stock is more about the destination and not the journey. Experts are excited about trends and if Harley-Davidson hits all the marks it promised financial analysts the company should see the stock price stumble its way upward, if not in a slower fashion than the glory days of excessive consumer consumption.

 

Comments  

 
0 #1 Jake M. 2010-07-23 15:38
That is a really good sign, as Harleys are a large discretionary purchase, which is usually the hardest hit during a recession.
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